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NuroPicksAlpha
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How the model scores

Sharp products prove edge with numbers, not testimonials. Below is the prop model graded against the no-vig market on settled picks - log loss (lower is better) and calibration (predicted vs actual hit rate). Updated daily by the model's own back-test.

Estimator back-test

hitrate_prob0.90940.311859.7% hit · n=67
dist_prob0.91930.302860.3% hit · n=78
dist_prob_unadj0.91930.302860.3% hit · n=78
model_only_prob1.07640.329259.5% hit · n=74
shrunk_prob0.88560.304360.3% hit · n=78
fair_prob0.65890.233064.0% hit · n=25

Closing-line coverage

83% of settled picks have a captured closing line (5/6). CLV is only honest when coverage is high - we publish this so you can check.

Methodology: every prop pick records its model probability and the no-vig market consensus at fire time. After the game settles, the back-test scores each with log loss and Brier. We do not hide losing stretches - see the public /record.

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