How the model scores

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Sharp products prove edge with numbers, not testimonials. Below is the prop model graded against the no-vig market on settled picks - log loss (lower is better) and calibration (predicted vs actual hit rate). Updated daily by the model's own back-test.

Estimator back-test

hitrate_prob0.85710.317052.2% hit · n=23

dist_prob0.84070.311952.2% hit · n=23

dist_prob_unadj0.84070.311952.2% hit · n=23

model_only_prob0.81320.301852.2% hit · n=23

shrunk_prob0.81320.301852.2% hit · n=23

fair_prob0.51130.1602100.0% hit · n=1

Closing-line coverage

48% of settled picks have a captured closing line (13/27). CLV is only honest when coverage is high - we publish this so you can check.

Methodology: every prop pick records its model probability and the no-vig market consensus at fire time. After the game settles, the back-test scores each with log loss and Brier. We do not hide losing stretches - see the public /record.

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NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801