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NuroPicksAlpha
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How the model scores

Sharp products prove edge with numbers, not testimonials. Below is the prop model graded against the no-vig market on settled picks - log loss (lower is better) and calibration (predicted vs actual hit rate). Updated daily by the model's own back-test.

Estimator back-test

hitrate_prob0.95900.333956.3% hit · n=80
dist_prob1.02750.332156.3% hit · n=96
dist_prob_unadj1.02750.332156.3% hit · n=96
model_only_prob1.20080.362655.1% hit · n=89
shrunk_prob0.97230.334556.3% hit · n=96
fair_prob0.67400.240560.6% hit · n=33

Closing-line coverage

75% of settled picks have a captured closing line (9/12). CLV is only honest when coverage is high - we publish this so you can check.

Methodology: every prop pick records its model probability and the no-vig market consensus at fire time. After the game settles, the back-test scores each with log loss and Brier. We do not hide losing stretches - see the public /record.

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