/ PGA
150-player fields. Long-priced outrights. Course fit rules.
Golf rewards patient bettors. Outrights at 60/1 that hit 5 percent of the time clear +EV if the true rate is closer to 8 percent. Our model conditions on strokes-gained by category, course fit, weather-draw, and round-specific scoring patterns.
Markets we cover
Outright winner
Four-day survival bet. 150+ player field each week; even favorites are +1000 or longer. Our best value lives in 60/1 to 120/1 players with recent course form and good weather draw.
Top 5 / 10 / 20
Priced like mini-outrights. Top 20 on a player you also like outright is often -EV because of the correlated outcome; top 5 on a different player is a cleaner hedge.
Head-to-head matchup
Two players matched for the tournament or the round. The tightest markets week to week. Our edge lives in fade-the-narrative matchups (favorite coming off a missed cut, dog with recent strokes-gained data).
First-round leader (FRL)
High-variance outright over one round only. We publish 2 to 4 FRL plays per event in the 40/1 to 80/1 range; hit rate around 2 percent is enough to be +EV with right pricing.
Make the cut
Binary two-day market. Cuts are set to the top 65 plus ties in most tournaments. Useful when you have a read on a player's recent consistency but not their upside.
Round props
Round-by-round matchups, individual birdie counts, first-round over/under on score. Thin markets, often mispriced for players with distinctive round-1-vs-round-4 splits.
What moves the needle in PGA
Strokes-gained by category
We weight SG:Approach + SG:Off-the-Tee + SG:Putting + SG:Around-the-Green by course demands. A U.S. Open course demands different skills than a short scoring course like TPC Summerlin.
Course fit
Same player, different venue, very different expected outcome. We track per-player course-fit scores by overlaying skill profile onto course characteristics (length, fairway width, rough height, green complexity).
Weather draw
Morning/afternoon AM-PM-AM-PM or AM-AM-PM-PM wave assignments matter. A bad weather draw (wind forecasted for your morning waves) can cost 1 to 2 strokes over 4 rounds vs a clean draw.
Recent form vs course history
Neither alone is enough. Recent form tells you how the player is playing right now; course history tells you whether the course fits them. Combine.
Travel and altitude
Players returning from Asia or Europe are meaningfully worse week-1 back. Altitude (Denver area) adds variance to the length game; some players adjust faster than others.
Weekend grind vs Thursday blitz
Some players consistently post their low round on Thursday, some on Saturday. Tracking round-specific scoring patterns creates edges in round-prop markets that full-tournament models miss.