The autonomous prop-slate generator, alt-line builder, and sharp-of-the-day writer all post here as soon as they fire on Discord. Same rows, same posted_at, no cherry-picking. Refresh for live state.
30-DAY MODEL ROI · 1u FLAT STAKE+6.31u+4.5% ROI · 79-60
Public, settled-out, no cherry-picking. The model graded 139 picks in the last 30 days.
CURRENT STREAKLosses in a row1Best win streak (30d)11
Yesterday's slate: 12 picks, 6-3, 66.7% hit rate. Best sport was MLB at 62.5%.
CALIBRATION · HIT RATE BY CONFIDENCE✗ not monotonic
2-3
80%
n=5
3-4
62.5%
n=8
4-5
55.6%
n=126
EDGE BANDS · HIT RATE BY ODDS · LAST 30 DAYS
-300 to -150
64.5%
n=107
-150 to -110
40%
n=10
+110 to +150
40%
n=5
+300 or longer
14.3%
n=14
PROP MARKETS · LAST 30 DAYS
BEST MARKET
batter_total_bases
64%(16-9)
WORST MARKET
batter_hits
57.7%(15-11)
LAST 7 DAYSPicks80Props64Wins39Losses34Hit rate53.4%
YESTERDAYPicks12Wins6Losses3Hit rate66.7%
The model has not posted a slate today yet. Slates fire between 11 AM and 1 PM ET. Showing the most-recent published picks below in the meantime.
Most recent (last 30)
mlbSeiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp NY Yankees @ CHI Cubs · Seiya Suzuki Empirical 88.0% over last 15 games vs 62.7% implied → +25.3pt EV.-168win
mlbBrandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles · Brandon Marsh Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +37.5pt EV.-170loss
mlbMookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Mookie Betts Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +18.4pt EV.-180win
mlbBen Williamson Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · Ben Williamson Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 68.8% implied → +10.8pt EV.-220win
mlbTy France Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres · Ty France Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.4pt EV.-235win
mlbDaylen Lile Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves · Daylen Lile Empirical 88.8% over last 15 games vs 65.5% implied → +14.7pt EV.-190win
mlbTroy Johnston Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies · Troy Johnston Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +34.9pt EV.-165pending
mlbIldemaro Vargas Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians · Ildemaro Vargas Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.1pt EV.-235loss
wnbaChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists @ 5.50 · Alt PlayerProp Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky · Chelsea Gray Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 68.1% implied → +25.3pt EV.-213win
mlbMookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Mookie Betts Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +18.9pt EV.-175win
mlbMunetaka Murakami Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · Munetaka Murakami Empirical 84.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +12.4pt EV.-170loss
mlbChase Meidroth Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp CHI White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chase Meidroth Empirical 78.0% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +14.2pt EV.-176loss
mlbTroy Johnston Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies · Troy Johnston Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +35.9pt EV.-175win
mlbColton Cowser Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles · Colton Cowser Empirical 99.5% over last 15 games vs 66.7% implied → +29.7pt EV.-200loss
mlbChristian Yelich Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels · Christian Yelich Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +19.7pt EV.-180win
mlbVaughn Grissom Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp Milwaukee Brewers @ LA Angels · Vaughn Grissom Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 66.8% implied → +18.2pt EV.-201win
wnbaKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points @ 19.50 · Alt PlayerProp Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire · Kelsey Mitchell Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.8% implied → +22.6pt EV.-242win
mlbAmed Rosario Under 1.5 Total Bases @ 1.50 · Alt PlayerProp New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs · Amed Rosario Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +36.7pt EV.-165loss
wnbaChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists @ 5.50 · Alt PlayerProp New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces · Chelsea Gray Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 70.5% implied → +29.5pt EV.-239loss
mlbXavier Edwards Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp Miami Marlins @ New York Mets · Xavier Edwards Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 66.7% implied → +33.1pt EV.-200win
mlbJorbit Vivas Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves · Jorbit Vivas Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +30.1pt EV.-235win
