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Last-5, last-10, last-20-game hit rate vs current line.

The cheapest, fastest research signal for a player prop is whether the player has actually cleared the number recently. We surface L5, L10, and L20 hit rates side-by-side with the current line, the opponent defense rank, the rest-day split, and the home/road context. OddsJam paywalls this at $199/mo. We do it free.

Heads-up: the three cards below render with example fixtures (Tatum, Brunson, Edwards) so the layout, methodology, and SEO surface are live today. Live data wiring through /api/player-trend ships in a follow-up. Methodology + FAQ below are final.

Three live examples (data static)

Jayson Tatum

BOS vs PHI · rest 2d · opp def rank 12

OVER 33.5

-110

Pts + Reb

L5

60%

avg 35.2

L10

60%

avg 35.1

L20

65%

avg 35.5

Season avg: 35.2Streak: 1 hit
Game-by-game (last 20)
  • 04-25 PHI38 ✓
  • 04-22 PHI32 ✗
  • 04-20 PHI41 ✓
  • 04-12 MIA36 ✓
  • 04-10 ORL29 ✗
  • 04-08 NYK35 ✓
  • 04-05 PHI33 ✗
  • 04-02 ATL39 ✓
  • 03-31 MIA31 ✗
  • 03-29 MIA37 ✓
  • 03-26 DET42 ✓
  • 03-24 DET40 ✓
  • 03-22 NYK34 ✓
  • 03-19 MIL27 ✗
  • 03-17 MIL38 ✓
  • 03-14 TOR36 ✓
  • 03-12 TOR33 ✗
  • 03-10 WAS41 ✓
  • 03-07 ATL35 ✓
  • 03-04 PHI32 ✗

Jalen Brunson

NYK @ DET · rest 1d · opp def rank 24

OVER 28.5

-115

Points

L5

60%

avg 28.6

L10

60%

avg 29.5

L20

60%

avg 29.4

Season avg: 29.4Streak: 1 hit
Game-by-game (last 20)
  • 04-25 DET31 ✓
  • 04-22 DET26 ✗
  • 04-20 DET29 ✓
  • 04-12 BOS24 ✗
  • 04-10 PHI33 ✓
  • 04-08 BOS27 ✗
  • 04-05 MIA30 ✓
  • 04-02 ORL35 ✓
  • 03-31 PHI28 ✗
  • 03-29 MIA32 ✓
  • 03-26 MIL29 ✓
  • 03-24 ATL26 ✗
  • 03-22 BOS31 ✓
  • 03-19 TOR34 ✓
  • 03-17 WAS28 ✗
  • 03-14 DET30 ✓
  • 03-12 ORL25 ✗
  • 03-10 PHI33 ✓
  • 03-07 MIA27 ✗
  • 03-04 BOS29 ✓

Anthony Edwards

MIN vs PHX · rest 2d · opp def rank 18

UNDER 27.5

-105

Points

L5

60%

avg 27

L10

60%

avg 26.7

L20

60%

avg 27

Season avg: 27Streak: 1 hit
Game-by-game (last 20)
  • 04-25 PHX22 ✓
  • 04-22 PHX31 ✗
  • 04-20 PHX25 ✓
  • 04-12 DAL33 ✗
  • 04-10 OKC24 ✓
  • 04-08 DAL29 ✗
  • 04-05 OKC26 ✓
  • 04-02 DEN22 ✓
  • 03-31 OKC30 ✗
  • 03-29 DEN25 ✓
  • 03-26 POR36 ✗
  • 03-24 POR21 ✓
  • 03-22 MEM27 ✓
  • 03-19 GSW32 ✗
  • 03-17 SAC24 ✓
  • 03-14 GSW28 ✗
  • 03-12 PHX26 ✓
  • 03-10 DAL23 ✓
  • 03-07 SAC30 ✗
  • 03-04 MEM25 ✓

Methodology

L5 / L10 / L20 hit rate is computed from the most recent N games the player actually played, ordered by date descending. DNPs are excluded; we do not impute values. Hit means the realized stat cleared the line on the side shown (over-clears-over, under-clears-under).

Avg value is the simple mean of the realized stat across the same N-game window.

Streak is the count of consecutive most-recent games that hit (or missed) on the displayed side.

Opponent defense rankis the opposing team's rank in points-allowed-per-100-possessions on the prop's stat type for the current season. 1 is best defense, 30 is worst.

Color thresholds: green at hit-rate ≥ 60% means recent form supports the side; gold at 40 to 59% means mixed, line probably correctly priced; pink under 40% means recent form fades the side. None of this is financial advice; all of it is past performance and 21+ entertainment.

FAQ

Why does last-5 / last-10 / last-20 hit rate matter for a player prop?

It is the cheapest, fastest signal that the line is mispriced relative to recent form. A 27.5 points line for a player who has cleared 28 in 7 of his last 10 games says one of two things: the book is correctly pricing in matchup-specific defensive context (in which case last-N is misleading), or the book is sticky on a number that should have moved (in which case last-N is the edge). Reading last-N alongside opponent defense rank and rest separates the two cases.

Why split into 5, 10, AND 20 instead of just one window?

L5 catches recent form changes — coaching adjustments, lineup churn, fatigue spikes. L10 smooths the noise and is the most common analyst window. L20 baselines against season trend and catches when L10 is itself an outlier. Three windows together give you a slope: if L5 is hotter than L10 which is hotter than L20, the player is heating up; if L5 is cold and L10 is hot, last-week-or-so concern.

How do you handle bye weeks, rest days, and DNPs?

DNPs are excluded from the window; an L5 across a player who missed 2 games is computed from the most-recent 5 games he actually played. Rest days are surfaced as context (rest_days field) but do not adjust the hit rate calculation. We do not impute values for missed games; missing data stays missing.

Why does opp_def_rank matter and how is it computed?

Opp_def_rank is the opposing team's rank in points-allowed-per-100-possessions on the prop's stat type for the season to date. Rank 1 is the best defense, 30 is the worst. It contextualizes last-N: a player who is 7-of-10 against rank-25-or-worse defenses tells you less about edge than a player who is 7-of-10 against rank-10-or-better defenses. We do not weight last-N by opponent strength on the visualizer; we surface the number so you can do the weighting yourself.

Is this live data or example data?

The page above ships with three example fixtures (Tatum P+R, Brunson PTS, Edwards PTS) hardcoded as a layout demonstration. Live data flows from /api/player-trend in a follow-up sprint. We are publishing the visualizer shape today so the SEO surface, the methodology, and the brand pattern are indexable now; the data wiring is the next ship.

Where does OddsJam paywall this?

OddsJam ships player-trend visualizers as part of their $199/mo Edge tier. Rithmm Smart Signals shows confidence tiers but not last-N hit rates. Nobody at sub-$30/mo currently surfaces L5/L10/L20 the way our /tools/player-trend-visualizer will once the live data lands.

Free at NuroPicks. $199/mo on OddsJam.

3 SHAP picks/day, 67-command Discord bot, vig-adjusted ROI on /record, and player-trend visualizer (live data ships next). No card on file.

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