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Soccer model picks today

Every Soccer pick the autonomous model published today. Player props, alt-line plays, sharp-of-the-day. Same rows that fired on Discord. Refresh for live state.

Most recent Soccer (last 21)

• Julian Alvarez Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
  Argentina @ Spain · Julian Alvarez
  Empirical 100.0% over last 6 games vs 65.5% implied → +13.8pt EV.-190void
• Alex Baena Anytime Goalscorer +500 · Anytime Goalscorer
  Argentina vs Spain · Alex Baena
  Takes ALL of Spain's dead balls (corners + direct free kicks) - a dead-ball scoring floor nobody else has at this price. ~fair at +500 (16.7% implied), a thesis longshot. Chosen book: FanDuel.+500void
• Lionel Messi First Goalscorer +430 · First Goalscorer
  Argentina vs Spain · Lionel Messi
  Given his +160 anytime (~40%), the first-given-anytime ratio prices FGS near +460 fair vs +430 - roughly fair, and the best marquee first-scorer number on the board. Chosen book: FanDuel.+430void
• Dani Olmo Over 0.5 Shots on Target -105 · Shots on Target
  Argentina vs Spain · Dani Olmo
  Spain average 6.5 SOT/game and Olmo is the highest-usage central creator in the XI. ~56% fair vs -105 (~51% implied) - the clearest +EV number in this pass. Chosen book: FanDuel.-105void
• Lamine Yamal Score or Assist +115 · Goal or Assist
  Argentina vs Spain · Lamine Yamal
  All Spain creation runs through him against 33yo Tagliafico with no recovery pace. Goal-or-assist union ~45% vs +115 (46.5% implied) - a better vehicle than his +280 AGS alone. Chosen book: FanDuel.+115void
• Total Corners Over 8.5 +110 · Corners
  Argentina vs Spain · Spain/Argentina match
  Spain's siege vs an Argentina low block generates corner volume even in a low-scoring game. The only real US-book corners price found. ~49% fair vs +110 (47.6% implied) - thesis lean. Chosen book: DraftKings.+110void
• Argentina Under 0.5 Team Goals +151 · Team Total
  Argentina vs Spain · Argentina
  Spain's win-to-nil at plus money: Spain conceded once all knockout rounds. If you buy Spain-win + BTTS No, this is the leveraged expression. ~44% fair vs +151 (39.8% implied). Chosen book: DraftKings.+151void
• Halftime Result: Draw -105 · Halftime Result
  Argentina vs Spain · Spain/Argentina match
  The cagey-final thesis as its own market: 2 of Spain's last 4 first halves were scoreless and Argentina score late (12 of 19 goals after 75'). ~53% fair vs -105 (~51% implied). Chosen book: DraftKings.-105void
• Mikel Oyarzabal Score or Assist +120 · Goal or Assist
  Argentina vs Spain · Mikel Oyarzabal
  A safer expression of the Oyarzabal exposure: he's Spain's pen taker with 5 goals + an assist in 7. He only needs to score OR set one up. ~48% fair vs +120 (45.5% implied). Chosen book: FanDuel.+120void
• Both Teams To Score - No -118 · Both Teams To Score
  Argentina vs Spain · Spain/Argentina match
  The cleanest expression of the whole thesis: Spain have 6 clean sheets and conceded ONE goal all tournament. BetMGM No -118 correlates with the Under without laying the -155 total. Chosen book: BetMGM.-118void
• Julian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer +270 · Anytime Goalscorer
  Argentina vs Spain · Julian Alvarez
  The only Argentina forward besides Messi confirmed to start, ~3 shots/game with the best transition profile against Spain's high line. DraftKings +270 edges FanDuel's +260. Right side at a fair price. Chosen book: DraftKings.+270void
• Lionel Messi To Record an Assist +320 · Assist
  Argentina vs Spain · Lionel Messi
  Assists in 3 straight (both semifinal goals vs England came from his deliveries); takes all 34 of Argentina's corners/FKs. Sharper Messi exposure than his shots given he's shifted to creator. +320 (23.8% implied) vs a ~28-30% read. Chosen book: DraftKings.+320void
• Lionel Messi Anytime Goalscorer +160 · Anytime Goalscorer
  Argentina vs Spain · Lionel Messi
  Argentina's talisman in likely his final World Cup match, takes their FKs and penalties. DraftKings +160 beats FanDuel's +150; consensus ~+148, so DK is the price. ~43% read. Chosen book: DraftKings.+160void
• Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer +280 · Anytime Goalscorer
  Argentina vs Spain · Lamine Yamal
  Spain's highest-usage attacker (15 knockout-phase shots). DraftKings +280 vs FanDuel's +230 - re-shopped to the better number. ~34% read vs +280 (26.3% implied). Chosen book: DraftKings.+280void
• Mikel Oyarzabal Over 2.5 Total Shots +125 · Total Shots
  Argentina vs Spain · Mikel Oyarzabal
  Averaging 5.08 shots/90 at this WC; even a 35% haircut leaves ~3.3 expected shots, so 3+ is ~58% vs +125 (44.4% implied). The best pick on the board - a pure volume bet that doesn't need a goal. Chosen book: FanDuel.+125void
• Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime Goalscorer +205 · Anytime Goalscorer
  Argentina vs Spain · Mikel Oyarzabal
  Spain's confirmed-starting striker AND penalty taker (scored the pen vs France) - 5 goals this WC. DraftKings +205 is far better than FanDuel's +160 for the same bet; consensus ~+180, so DK is a clear +EV re-shop. Chosen book: DraftKings.+205void
• Draw after 90 minutes (3-way) +200 · Match Result (Draw)
  Argentina vs Spain · Spain/Argentina match
  Confirmed +200 at DK / BetMGM / FanDuel. Kalshi grid puts the 90' draw ~31.5% and 5 of the last 8 finals were level after 90'. Two elite defenses + biggest-stage risk aversion. Chosen book: DraftKings.+200void
• Under 2.5 Goals -155 · Total Goals
  Argentina vs Spain · Spain/Argentina match
  The sharp side: DK held/steamed the Under (-145 to -155) while 82% of BetMGM tickets were on the Over. Score-grid + Poisson land Under ~62%. Main total is confirmed 2.5 (not 2.0) at DK/MGM/FD. Chosen book: DraftKings.-155void
• Spain to Win the World Cup -150 · To Lift the Trophy
  Argentina vs Spain · Spain
  Spain arrive 37 unbeaten with 6 clean sheets. Multi-book no-vig fair ~58.3% (fair ~-140); -150 is FanDuel's best retail price with every other book -160 to -175, so it carries positive CLV. Line moved TOWARD Spain since open. Chosen book: FanDuel.-150void
• Total Corners Over 9.5 @ 9.50 · Soccer Prop
  England vs France · France/England match
  France average 9.4 corners/game alone (7 vs Spain); model projects ~11 combined. Over 9.5 at +100 is ~54% fair.+100void
• France Moneyline (3-way) · Soccer Prop
  England vs France · France
  France ~55% fair vs -121 (~52%) implied: extra rest day, Deschamps farewell + Mbappé Golden Boot chase, England missing James/Rice/Saka behind a makeshift back line.-121void

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