Tom Wright ML
Matteo Martignoni @ Tom Wright
Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Game context
Context signals
- 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Tom Wright priced at **60.8% implied** to win - book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
Line movement
-155-150+0.02 decRelated Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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