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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-10-24🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 35ee2de5

William Contreras Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers

-176risk0.11u→win0.06uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in16:53
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-176

Closing

-170

CLV

-1.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +16.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 7bd3fe)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.2pt EV vs implied
  • 80.0% over last 15 games
  • L10 hit-rate: 80% (8/10)

Line movement

-176-170+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
3
Settled
2
Hit rate
50.0%
1-1
ROI
-9.44%
-0.03u
CLV avg
+0.84%
n=2
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#16001
UUID1f320b8b-8b2a-4471-8859-909fbc84b68a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-10-24 22:18 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash35ee2de559a8cfba5cfddd53c18600cdd52d52d65ca101161338898af968e135
Closing line-170 captured 2026-10-24 22:54 UTC
CLV delta-1.26%
Closing hashfc09928e59960b5de64d5acea044f3ea8d62148e9dd73b2b9b0d4b866e724e07

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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