du Plessis vs Usman
Usman's win equity is underpriced: majority decision vs Chimaev on 10 days notice while DDP got wiped 50-44 by the same man; 89% vs 34% takedown defense. ~85% of his win path is a decision. Fair ~+230-280; shop toward +450-525.
Big book spread — Bovada +350, quotes up to +525 elsewhere. Sharp handle 51% on Usman.
Common-opponent (Chimaev) signal is the strongest read on the card.
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Usman is 39, up a weight, 13-mo layoff, bad knees — the whole reason he can lose. Med confidence.
