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mmaMMA Prop.2026-07-18💎Elite◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0

Kamaru Usman by Decision

du Plessis vs Usman

+350risk1u→win3.5uVOID

Stake

1u

Odds

+350

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Usman's win equity is underpriced: majority decision vs Chimaev on 10 days notice while DDP got wiped 50-44 by the same man; 89% vs 34% takedown defense. ~85% of his win path is a decision. Fair ~+230-280; shop toward +450-525.

Signal

Big book spread — Bovada +350, quotes up to +525 elsewhere. Sharp handle 51% on Usman.

Context

Common-opponent (Chimaev) signal is the strongest read on the card.

Risk

Usman is 39, up a weight, 13-mo layoff, bad knees — the whole reason he can lose. Med confidence.

Game context

Context signals

  • Usman MD vs Chimaev (10d notice) vs DDP 50-44 loss to same
  • Usman 89% TDD vs DDP 34%
  • 52% of Usman career wins by decision
Related Picks (11)

Audit trail

Pick ID#1470
UUID04c0da02-7d57-4a3d-a88c-ada3ba6f716a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-26 20:32 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

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