Kongthoranee Sor Sommai ML
Nong-O Hama @ Kongthoranee Sor Sommai
-145risk1u→win0.69uVOID
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Game context
Context signals
- 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Kongthoranee Sor Sommai priced at **59.2% implied** to win - book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
Model Record (30d)
sharp-stub-v0Trailing 30-day window
Picks
1
Settled
0
Hit rate
—
ROI
—
CLV avg
—
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (0 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (6)
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1324
UUID65a1ede6-d790-45ac-babf-7b6afac7688d
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-06-26 09:42 UTC
Graded2026-07-26 20:32 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1235db6a6fafb48b4dca6390f0b61f68346a1f2062d0055cfa3600adfe3e9c98
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger80.8% hashed1,309 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.9% closed1,289 settled picks · 63.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public20 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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