← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 5:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · MIDDLEWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida 7-2 · Damian Pinas 9-1
Who are these fighters?
Middleweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Cesar Almeida
“Cesinha”
7-2
VS
Damian Pinas
“The Baba Yaga”
9-1
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
38Age24
6' 1"Height6' 1"
74"Reach79.5"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
BrazilFromAruba
Dec 2025Last FightFeb 2026
Home division (185) for both.
No move. Both weighed in at the middleweight limit.
How do they win?
Career winsPINAS: 100% FINISH RATE9 wins, 9 finishes (8 KO, 1 sub)
Almeida5 KO · 0 sub · 2 dec
Been finished 0x in 2 losses
Pinas8 KO · 1 sub · 0 dec
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: PINAS7.50 SLpM vs 3.46, more than double
AlmeidaPinas
3.5Sig. strikes / min7.5
59%Striking accuracy56%
2.0Strikes absorbed / min3.8
0.0Takedowns / 15 min0.0
0%Takedown accuracy-
52%Takedown defense100%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: PINAS7-fight finish streak vs 2-2 last four
Cesar Almeida3-2
L Oleksiejczuk Dec (U) '25W Alhassan KO R1 '25W Potieria Dec (U) '24L Kopylov Dec (S) '24W Budka KO R2 '24
Damian Pinas5-0
W Schultz KO R1 '26W Costa TKO R1 '25W Marques KO R1 '24W Gregory KO R1 '24W Matos KO R2 '24 ◆ TITLE
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyAlmeidaPinas
W TKO R1 (punches) '21Vitor CostaW TKO R1 (doctor's stoppage) '25
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesCesar Almeida
- Hittable defensively; both losses are decisions to pressure or grappling
- Low-output patient range striker who can be outworked
- No ground game shown in the UFC
- 38 and coming off a loss
Damian Pinas
- Unproven past round one (cardio and chin untested in deep water)
- Predictable front-foot power-hunting aggression
- Has not faced a technical veteran striker or a real grappler
- Thin high-level resume at 24
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONDamian Pinas ML-238
CONFIDENCE 3/5
This is a pure kickboxing match where the 24-year-old holds every physical lever: 5.5 inches of reach, more than double the output (7.50 SLpM vs 3.46), and nine straight wins with nine finishes. Almeida is a legit striker with real power (5 KOs in 7 wins) but he's 38, coming off a decision loss, and sitting 2-2 in his last four against a guy who has never been outfought. The chalk is priced steep for someone with only two UFC/DWCS fights on tape, which is why this stays a 3 and not a hammer, but the matchup logic all points one way.
Why this confidence
+2
Stylistic matchup edge
KO power and youth against a hittable, ground-game-less 38-year-old.
+1
Recent form / activity
Five-fight win streak, mostly first-round finishes.
-1
Cardio / pace
Nearly every win ends in round one; deep-water game untested.
-1
Betting-line value
-238 is steep; Almeida is a live dog at +195 if Pinas cannot finish early.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickDamian Pinas ML
Consensus-218
Per-book line shopping was not available for this bout.Early-prelim consensus only. Some grids had Almeida as favorite; confirm the side and price in-app before betting.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansMethod of Victory
Pinas by KO/TKO
Eight of Pinas's nine wins are knockouts and he's averaged 2:08 of cage time across UFC/DWCS. If he wins, it's almost certainly not on the cards since he has zero decision wins.
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
Under 2.5
Eight of Pinas's nine finishes came inside two rounds, and Almeida himself ends fights early when he wins (both recent KOs in R1-R2). The one flag: Almeida has never been finished, so the under leans on Pinas being the first to do it.
Fight Goes the Distance
No
Combined 13 KO/TKO wins between two strikers who have never landed a UFC takedown. Pinas has literally never heard a final bell in a win.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.