1
Main Event
Welterweight · 5 Rounds · 9:00 PM ETMAIN CARD
Conor McGregor
22-6-0
Max Holloway
27-9-0
The Pick
Max Holloway
Moneyline -235
HIGH EDGE
Weight Context
Both moving up to welterweight.
Holloway's first-ever 170 lb bout after a career at 145/155, and he still had to cut weight to make it. McGregor is at his heaviest camp weight. Holloway was once medically pulled from an unsafe lightweight cut in 2018, so a clean move up actually lowers his own cut risk even as it shrinks his size edge.
Weight ConcernConfidence Breakdown
Stylistic matchup edge+2
Cardio / pace+2
Layoff / rust+2
Betting-line value0
Weight-class movement-1
Total+5/10
Conor McGregor
- Five-year layoff and turns 38 three days after the fight
- Cardio historically fades hard past round two
- Submission-prone (four of six career losses are subs)
- All six of his career losses are finishes
Max Holloway
- Slow starter who takes early damage before warming up
- Chin was cracked by Topuria (KO, Oct 2024)
- Takedown defense leaks against dedicated wrestlers
- Durability built two weight classes below welterweight
