← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 5:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · FLYWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
Cody Durden 18-10-1 · Alessandro Costa 16-5
Who are these fighters?
Flyweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Cody Durden
“Custom Made”
18-10-1
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
VS
Alessandro Costa
“Nono”
16-5
4 TITLE-FIGHT WINS
35Age30
5' 7"Height5' 4"
67"Reach67"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
USAFromBrazil
Apr 2026Last FightJun 2026
Home division (125) for both.
No move, but Costa took this on roughly 10 days notice replacing Ode Osbourne, a fast turnaround after fighting on June 6, 2026.
How do they win?
Career winsCOSTA: 81% FINISH RATE13 of 16 wins inside the distance vs Durden's 67%
Durden6 KO · 6 sub · 6 dec
Been finished 7x in 10 losses (2 KO · 5 sub)
Costa7 KO · 6 sub · 3 dec
Been finished 3x in 5 losses (3 KO · 0 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: COSTA3.86 vs 3.24 sig strikes per min, plus better defense
DurdenCosta
3.2Sig. strikes / min3.9
45%Striking accuracy47%
3.9Strikes absorbed / min3.7
4.0Takedowns / 15 min0.8
49%Takedown accuracy-
57%Takedown defense86%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: COSTATwo straight KO/TKO wins vs Durden 2-6 in last 8
Cody Durden1-4
W Filho Dec (U) '26L Tumendemberel Dec (U) '26L Nascimento Sub R2 '25L Ochoa KO R2 '25L Van Dec (U) '24
Alessandro Costa3-2
W Schnell TKO R1 '26W Nicoll KO R2 '26L Coria TKO R3 '25W Borjas TKO R2 '24L Erceg Dec (U) '23
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyDurdenCosta
W Sub R2 (ninja choke, 0:29) '24Matt SchnellW TKO R1 (punches, 2:28) '26
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesCody Durden
- Fading chin and durability (KO'd by Ochoa, TKO'd by da Silva in 2024-25)
- Limited offensive output
- One-note wrestling that stalls without top control
- 35 and 1-4 across his last five
Alessandro Costa
- Hittable and has been finished (TKO by Coria, R3)
- Gas-tank questions compounded by a 10-day camp and a June bout
- Weight-cut risk on short notice
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONAlessandro Costa ML-245
CONFIDENCE 3/5
This is chalk that actually earns its number. Durden's whole path is the takedown (3.99 per 15) and Costa stuffs shots at 86% while having never been submitted in 21 pro fights, so the wrestling well is mostly capped. On the feet it gets worse for Durden: he absorbs 3.94 per minute, has been finished 7 times, and got flatlined by Ochoa in 2025, while Costa is riding back-to-back KO/TKO wins and finishes 13 of 16 career victories. A 35-year-old who is 2-6 in his last 8 against a 30-year-old power striker in form is a fade, not a live dog.
Why this confidence
+1
Stylistic matchup edge
Live power against Durden's clearly declining chin.
-2
Short-notice
Took the fight on roughly 10 days notice, a month after a June bout; hard-caps confidence at 3.
-1
Betting-line value
-245 is a lot to lay on a short-notice favorite; Durden is a live grappling dog at +200.
+1
Age & decline
30 against Durden's 35 on a clear downturn.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickAlessandro Costa ML
Consensus-250
Per-book line shopping was not available for this bout.Early-prelim: consensus price only, not line-shopped. Costa is on short notice, so shop live.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansFight Goes the Distance
No
Costa wins inside the distance in 13 of 16, Durden has been finished 7 times in 10 losses, and both of their last meetings with shared opponent Schnell ended early. Somebody's night usually ends before the cards here.
Method of Victory
Costa by KO/TKO
Seven of Costa's 16 wins are by knockout, he's on a two-fight KO/TKO streak, and Durden has already been stopped by strikes twice, including an 11-second-of-R2 KO loss in Jun 2025.
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
Under 2.5
All four of Costa's recent finishes (won or lost) landed in rounds 1-3, and his last two wins ended in R1 and R2. Pairs with the durability gap on Durden's side.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.