← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 7:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · BANTAMWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
Cody Garbrandt 15-7 · Adrian Yanez 17-6-1
Who are these fighters?
Bantamweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Cody Garbrandt
“No Love”
15-7
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
VS
Adrian Yanez
17-6-1
35Age32
5' 8"Height5' 7"
65.5"Reach70"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
USAFromUSA
Mar 2026Last FightMar 2026
Home division (135) for both.
No move. Standard three-round bantamweight bout.
How do they win?
Career winsYANEZ: 76% FINISH RATE13 of 17 wins by stoppage vs Garbrandt's 73% (11 of 15)
Garbrandt11 KO · 0 sub · 4 dec
Been finished 5x in 7 losses (4 KO · 1 sub)
Yanez11 KO · 2 sub · 4 dec
Been finished 2x in 6 losses (2 KO · 0 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: YANEZ5.96 SLpM more than doubles Garbrandt's 2.79
GarbrandtYanez
2.8Sig. strikes / min6.0
40%Striking accuracy42%
3.7Strikes absorbed / min5.2
0.8Takedowns / 15 min0.0
11%Takedown accuracy0%
82%Takedown defense75%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsFORM: MURKY BOTH WAYSGarbrandt 4-7 since 2016 title win; Yanez 1-3-1 in his last 5
Cody Garbrandt3-2
W Xiao Long Dec (U) '26L Barcelos Dec (U) '25L Figueiredo Sub R2 '24W Kelleher KO R1 '23W Jones Dec (U) '23
Adrian Yanez1-3
D Simon Draw (M) '26L Marcos Dec (S) '24W Salvador KO R1 '24L Martinez KO R2 '23L Font KO R1 '23
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyGarbrandtYanez
L Dec (U) '21Rob FontL KO R1 '23
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesCody Garbrandt
- Durability is gone (KO history plus the Figueiredo choke)
- Output has cratered (no 28-plus significant-strike fight since May 2021)
- 22% takedown accuracy, cannot lean on wrestling
Adrian Yanez
- Chin has been cracked (stopped by Font and Martinez)
- Fades late
- Winless in regulation over his last five, trending gun-shy
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONAdrian Yanez ML-450
CONFIDENCE 2/5
This is a pure kickboxing match and Yanez more than doubles Garbrandt's output (5.96 vs 2.79 SLpM) with a 4.5 inch reach edge, against a 35 year old who has been stopped 5 times and is 4-7 since the Cruz win. Garbrandt's only paths are a decision grind or landing the one clean shot, and his 0.85 takedowns per 15 at 11% accuracy says the grind is not coming. That said, -450 for a guy who is 0-1-1 in his last two off a 15 month layoff is rich chalk, so this is a parlay piece, not a hammer. Garbrandt is a live dog by chin math alone, just not a bet I want at his volume.
Why this confidence
+1
Stylistic matchup edge
Volume and precision gap over a faded, low-output Garbrandt.
-2
Betting-line value
-450 is a bad number to lay; Garbrandt is a live puncher at +340, not dead money.
-1
Chin / finish-resistance
Yanez's own chin has been cracked (Font, Martinez); Garbrandt's one-punch power is real.
-1
Recent form / activity
Winless in regulation over his last five.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickAdrian Yanez ML
-355 is still a poor number to lay on a fighter winless in regulation over his last five.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansFight Goes the Distance
No
22 combined KO wins, Garbrandt has been finished 5 times, and Yanez absorbs 5.24 strikes a minute. Two hittable power punchers with zero grappling between them is a finish waiting to happen.
Method of Victory
Yanez by KO/TKO
11 of Yanez's 17 wins are knockouts and he gets to unload volume on a chin that has cracked 4 times by KO. If Yanez wins, this is the most likely way it looks.
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
Under 1.5 Rounds lean
Both of Yanez's last two KO wins came inside two rounds and 3 of Garbrandt's last 4 losses ended early. When either of these two hurts someone, they finish fast.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.