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UFC · 9:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · LIGHTWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
King Green vs Terrance McKinney
King Green 35-17-1 · Terrance McKinney 18-8
Who are these fighters?
LightweightMAIN CARD3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
King Green
35-17-1
3 TITLE-FIGHT WINS
VS
Terrance McKinney
“T. Wrecks”
18-8
39Age31
5' 10"Height5' 10"
71"Reach73.5"
OrthodoxStanceSwitch
USAFromUSA
May 2026Last FightMar 2026
Home division (155) for both.
No move. Straight lightweight matchup.
How do they win?
Career winsMCKINNEY: 100% FINISH RATE18-0 in finishes, 0 decision wins; Green 63%
Green12 KO · 10 sub · 13 dec
Been finished 9x in 17 losses (6 KO · 3 sub)
McKinney9 KO · 9 sub · 0 dec
Been finished 8x in 8 losses (5 KO · 3 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: DEAD EVEN6.53 vs 6.46 sig strikes per min
GreenMcKinney
6.5Sig. strikes / min6.5
53%Striking accuracy55%
3.5Strikes absorbed / min3.5
1.3Takedowns / 15 min3.3
43%Takedown accuracy40%
70%Takedown defense73%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: GREEN3-fight win streak vs McKinney alternating W/L
King Green3-2
W Stephens Sub R1 '26W Zellhuber KO R2 '26W Gibson Jr. Dec (S) '25L Ruffy KO R1 '25L Pimblett Sub R1 '24
Terrance McKinney3-2
W Nelson KO R1 '26L Duncan Sub R1 '25W Borshchev Sub R1 '25W Hadzovic KO R1 '25L Ribovics KO R1 '24
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyGreenMcKinney
L KO R2 '22Drew DoberL KO R1 '22
W Sub R2 '11Charon SpainW Sub R1 '19
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesKing Green
- Fragile chin at 39-40 (KO'd by Dober and Ruffy)
- Low-hands defense gets walked down at the fence
Terrance McKinney
- Cardio cliff; roughly two minutes of gas then a steep fade
- Boom-or-bust, all-or-nothing pace
- Struggles with grapplers (submitted by Duncan)
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONKing Green ML+115
CONFIDENCE 3/5
This is a live dog spot, not a hammer. McKinney is a round 1 tornado (11 of his 13 UFC fights ended there) but he has never once heard a final bell in 26 pro fights, and Green has survived to the cards 22 times with 70% takedown defense to blunt the 3.31 TDs per 15. If Green weathers the opening storm, the fight tilts hard his way, and he is the hotter fighter anyway on a 3-fight streak with two finishes. At +115 in what the books call a coin flip, the experience and durability side is the value side.
Why this confidence
+2
Betting-line value
+115 in a near coin-flip; the durability and experience side is underpriced.
+2
Cardio / pace
McKinney has a two-minute gas tank; Green has reached the scorecards 22 times.
+1
Recent form / activity
Riding a three-fight win streak with two finishes.
-2
Chin / finish-resistance
Fragile chin at 39-40; one clean bomb in the first five minutes ends it (hard-cap at 3).
-1
Age & decline
Nearly 40; reflexes and recovery are eroding.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickKing Green ML
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansFight Goes the Distance
No
All 26 of McKinney's pro fights ended inside the distance, and Green's last two also wrapped early (R1 sub win, R2 KO win). Both land 6.4+ sig strikes a minute, so somebody is getting cracked.
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
Under 1.5
McKinney fights are a round 1 coin flip by design: 11 of his 13 completed UFC bouts ended in the first. Green himself has been in three straight fights with a round 1 or 2 finish.
Method of Victory
Green by KO/TKO or Submission
If McKinney does not get it done early he has literally never won late or on the cards (0 decision wins), and Green just showed both finishing tools with a R2 KO of Zellhuber and a R1 RNC of Stephens. Nice longshot pairing with the Green ML lean.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.