← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 7:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · FEATHERWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley
Kai Kamaka III 18-7-1 · Luke Riley 13-0
Who are these fighters?
Featherweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Kai Kamaka III
“The Fighting Hawaiian”
18-7-1
VS
Luke Riley
13-0
31Age27
5' 7"Height5' 9"
69"Reach69"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
USAFromEngland
Apr 2026Last FightMar 2026
Home division (145) for both.
No move; Kamaka drops back to featherweight after a lightweight-limit return bout, and both hit 146.
How do they win?
Career winsRILEY: 69% FINISH RATE9 KO/TKOs in 13 wins, zero career losses
III3 KO · 1 sub · 14 dec
Been finished 2x in 7 losses (2 KO · 0 sub)
Riley9 KO · 0 sub · 4 dec
Been finished 0x in 0 losses
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: RILEY5.56 landed vs 3.32 absorbed per min; Kamaka eats 5.67
IIIRiley
5.4Sig. strikes / min5.6
59%Striking accuracy57%
5.7Strikes absorbed / min3.3
1.5Takedowns / 15 min0.0
54%Takedown accuracy-
55%Takedown defense38%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: RILEY (13-0)5-fight win streak vs Kamaka's 4-1 in last 5
Kai Kamaka III4-1
W Hope Dec (S) '26W Lima KO R3 '26L Brandao Dec (S) '25 ◆ TITLEW Muduev Dec (U) '25W Weems KO R2 '25
Luke Riley5-0
W Aswell Dec (U) '26W Grad KO R2 '25W Abbasov TKO R2 '25W Junior KO R1 '24W de Jesus Dec (U) '24
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyIIIRiley
W Dec (U) '21John de JesusW Dec (U) '24
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesKai Kamaka III
- Low finishing rate; wins close cards, not rounds outright
- Chin questioned (KO'd twice)
- Several recent results are splits against regional competition
- 31 and cutting back to 145
Luke Riley
- Untested against UFC-level grapplers and veteran gatekeepers
- Most finishes come early; cardio and championship-round poise unproven
- Chin untested at this level
- Hype built on Cage Warriors and a short UFC sample
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONLuke Riley ML-265
CONFIDENCE 3/5
Riley is 13-0 with 9 knockouts and he gets hit way less, absorbing 3.32 sig strikes a minute to Kamaka's 5.67. Kamaka's clearest path is the wrestle-boxing route since Riley has landed zero takedowns and defends them at just 38%, so this is not free money at -265. But Kamaka has been TKO'd twice, gives up two inches of height at the same reach, and 14 of his 18 wins are decisions, which means he has to survive 15 minutes of a knockout artist to grind this out. Riley is the right side, just at a chalky number against a live dog.
Why this confidence
+2
Stylistic matchup edge
Sharper, more explosive front-foot striking and finishing power over a decision-reliant, twice-KO'd veteran.
-1
Betting-line value
-265 is a steep price on an unbeaten but untested prospect.
-1
Cardio / pace
Most wins end early; deep-water poise unproven if Kamaka drags it late.
+1
Recent form / activity
13-0 with a 69% finish rate.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickLuke Riley ML
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansMethod of Victory
Riley by KO/TKO
Riley has finished 9 of 13 opponents and Kamaka eats 5.67 sig strikes per minute with two TKO losses on his record. If Riley wins, this is the most likely way it happens.
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
Kamaka just went five hard rounds with Brandao in October and only one of Riley's last five wins ended in round one. Riley's UFC finishes have come in round two, so give it time to develop.
Kamaka Takedown Props
Kamaka to land 1+ takedown
Kamaka averages 1.51 takedowns per 15 at 54% accuracy against a guy showing 38% takedown defense and zero takedowns of his own. Even in a loss, he should hit the mat game at least once.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.