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UFC · 9:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · WELTERWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
Conor McGregor 22-6 · Max Holloway 27-9
Who are these fighters?
WelterweightMAIN EVENT5 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Conor McGregor
“The Notorious”
22-6
5 TITLE-FIGHT WINS
VS
Max Holloway
“Blessed”
27-9
6 TITLE-FIGHT WINS
37Age34
5' 9"Height5' 11"
74"Reach69"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
IrelandFromUSA
Jul 2021Last FightMar 2026
Both moving up to welterweight.
Holloway's first-ever 170 lb bout after a career at 145/155, and he still had to cut weight to make it. McGregor is at his heaviest camp weight. Holloway was once medically pulled from an unsafe lightweight cut in 2018, so a clean move up actually lowers his own cut risk even as it shrinks his size edge.
How do they win?
Career winsMCGREGOR: 91% FINISH RATE20 of 22 wins inside the distance vs Holloway's 52%
McGregor19 KO · 1 sub · 2 dec
Been finished 6x in 6 losses (2 KO · 4 sub)
Holloway12 KO · 2 sub · 13 dec
Been finished 2x in 9 losses (1 KO · 1 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: HOLLOWAY6.91 SLpM into McGregor's 4.66 absorbed per min
McGregorHolloway
5.3Sig. strikes / min6.9
50%Striking accuracy48%
4.7Strikes absorbed / min4.6
0.7Takedowns / 15 min0.2
-Takedown accuracy27%
67%Takedown defense81%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: HOLLOWAY4 fights since Oct 2024 vs a 5-year layoff
Conor McGregor2-3
L Poirier TKO R1 '21L Poirier KO R2 '21W Cerrone KO R1 '20L Nurmagomedov Sub R4 '18 ◆ TITLEW Alvarez KO R2 '16 ◆ TITLE
Max Holloway3-2
L Oliveira Dec (U) '26 ◆ TITLEW Poirier Dec (U) '25 ◆ TITLEL Topuria KO R3 '24 ◆ TITLEW Gaethje KO R5 '24 ◆ TITLEW Jung KO R3 '23
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyMcGregorHolloway
L TKO R1 (doctor stoppage) '21Dustin PoirierW Dec (U) '25
W KO R1 '15Jose AldoW TKO R3 '17
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesConor McGregor
- Five-year layoff and turns 38 three days after the fight
- Cardio historically fades hard past round two
- Submission-prone (four of six career losses are subs)
- All six of his career losses are finishes
Max Holloway
- Slow starter who takes early damage before warming up
- Chin was cracked by Topuria (KO, Oct 2024)
- Takedown defense leaks against dedicated wrestlers
- Durability built two weight classes below welterweight
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONMax Holloway ML-235
CONFIDENCE 4/5
The sharp money dragging Holloway from -400 to -235 is a McGregor nostalgia tax, not a tape read. Holloway has fought four times since Oct 2024 against elite lightweights while McGregor has not answered a bell in five years, is 1-3 in his last four, and turns 38 three days after this walk. The volume math is brutal: Holloway lands 6.91 significant strikes a minute and McGregor absorbs 4.66, and in a five rounder that gap compounds every minute McGregor fails to land the early left hand. McGregor's one-punch equity in rounds 1-2 is the only reason this is not a 5.
Why this confidence
+2
Stylistic matchup edge
Volume-and-cardio profile attacks McGregor's post-round-two fade over a 25-minute fight.
+2
Cardio / pace
Elite five-round engine; broke Gaethje in the fifth in a BMF war.
+2
Layoff / rust
Four fights since Oct 2024 against McGregor's five-year layoff.
0
Betting-line value
Bet from -400 to -235; the priced edge is already gone, which caps this below a hammer.
-1
Weight-class movement
First true welterweight bout, two divisions above his best work, and he still had to cut.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickMax Holloway ML
BetRivers -225 is a large outlier vs the -270 field and may be stale; confirm it is still live before laying it.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansOver/Under 2.5 Rounds
Over 2.5 Rounds
Holloway has been finished twice in 36 fights and eats punches at 81% takedown-defense pace with a granite reputation, while McGregor's finishing windows have historically been rounds 1-2. If Max survives the early blitz, and the tape says he usually does, this cruises past the midpoint.
Method of Victory
Holloway by KO/TKO
All six McGregor losses are finishes, zero on the scorecards, and a 5-year layoff plus a 38th birthday is not the recipe for absorbing 6.91 strikes a minute for 25 minutes. Holloway broke Gaethje in round 5; the late accumulation stoppage is his signature.
Fight Goes the Distance
No
This is the rare bout where both wells point away from the judges: McGregor wins by KO in 19 of 22 wins, and McGregor has never lost a decision because he never makes it there when losing. Somebody gets stopped.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.