← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 9:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · LIGHTWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Paddy Pimblett vs Benoît Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett 23-4 · Benoît Saint Denis 17-3-0 (1 NC)
Who are these fighters?
LightweightMAIN CARD3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Paddy Pimblett
“The Baddy”
23-4
4 TITLE-FIGHT WINS
VS
Benoît Saint Denis
“God of War”
17-3-0 (1 NC)
31Age30
5' 10"Height5' 11"
73"Reach73"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
EnglandFromFrance
Jan 2026Last FightFeb 2026
Home division (155) for both.
No move. Pimblett is known to balloon to about 191 lb between camps but has never missed weight in the UFC.
How do they win?
Career winsBSD: 100% FINISH RATEAll 17 wins by stoppage (11 sub, 6 KO); Pimblett sits at 74%
Pimblett7 KO · 10 sub · 6 dec
Been finished 1x in 4 losses (0 KO · 1 sub)
Denis6 KO · 11 sub · 0 dec
Been finished 2x in 3 losses (2 KO · 0 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: BSD SLIGHT5.62 vs 5.49 SLpM, and BSD lands at 59% to Paddy's 53%
PimblettDenis
5.5Sig. strikes / min5.6
53%Striking accuracy59%
3.9Strikes absorbed / min4.1
0.7Takedowns / 15 min4.2
21%Takedown accuracy36%
44%Takedown defense72%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: SAINT DENIS4 straight finishes vs Pimblett off his first UFC loss
Paddy Pimblett4-1
L Gaethje Dec (U) '26 ◆ TITLEW Chandler KO R3 '25W Green Sub R1 '24W Ferguson Dec (U) '23W Gordon Dec (U) '22
Benoît Saint Denis4-1
W Hooker KO R2 '26W Dariush KO R1 '25W Ruffy Sub R2 '25W Prepolec Sub R2 '25L Moicano TKO R2 (doctor) '24
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesPaddy Pimblett
- Suspect striking defense; ate a five-round beating from Gaethje
- Balloons to about 191 lb between camps
- Wins lean on elite BJJ, not his hands
Benoît Saint Denis
- Chin has been questioned (KO by Poirier, battered by Moicano)
- Leaky striking defense in open exchanges
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✗ LOSTBenoît Saint Denis ML-148
CONFIDENCE 3/5
The grappling math is ugly for Paddy: BSD lands 4.19 takedowns per 15 against a guy defending at 44%, and his own 72% TD defense mostly closes off Pimblett's mat game. Every one of BSD's 17 wins is a finish, and he's riding four straight stoppages including a 16-second KO of Dariush and a February TKO of Hooker. The fade case is real since BSD has been cracked twice by strikes and Pimblett has never been KO'd, which is why this stays a lean at -148 and not a hammer. Chalk, but earned chalk.
Why this confidence
+2
Stylistic matchup edge
4.19 takedowns per 15 into Pimblett's 44% takedown defense; the grappling controls where the fight happens.
+2
Recent form / activity
Four straight finishes, including a 16-second KO of Dariush.
0
Betting-line value
Line has tightened to about -148; a fair price, not a value spot.
-1
Chin / finish-resistance
Cracked twice by strikes; Pimblett has never been KO'd, so the fade case is live.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickBenoît Saint Denis ML
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansFight Goes the Distance
No
Combined 34 finishes in 40 wins, BSD has literally zero decision victories, and both men absorb around 4 sig strikes a minute with sub-45% striking defense. Somebody gets got.
Method of Victory
Saint Denis by Submission
BSD's 11 career subs meet a 44% takedown defense, and Pimblett's only career stoppage loss came by submission. If BSD drags this to the floor, the finish path is the neck, not the hands.
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
Under 2.5 Rounds
Four of BSD's last five ended inside two rounds, and this pace profile (5.62 vs 5.49 SLpM, both hittable) burns fast in a three-rounder.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.