← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 5:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · MIDDLEWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Zach Reese vs Ryan Gandra
Zach Reese 10-3-0 (1 NC) · Ryan Gandra 9-1
Who are these fighters?
Middleweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Zach Reese
“Savage”
10-3-0 (1 NC)
VS
Ryan Gandra
“Problema”
9-1
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
32Age31
6' 4"Height6' 1"
77"Reach74.5"
SwitchStanceOrthodox
USAFromBrazil
Feb 2026Last FightFeb 2026
Home division (185) for both.
No move. Straight middleweight bout.
How do they win?
Career winsGANDRA: 78% FINISH RATE6 KO + 1 sub in 9 wins, 5 straight finishes
Reese5 KO · 3 sub · 2 dec
Been finished 2x in 3 losses (2 KO · 0 sub)
Gandra6 KO · 1 sub · 2 dec
Been finished 1x in 1 loss (1 KO · 0 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: GANDRA13.02 SLpM, but under 4 min of UFC tape
ReeseGandra
4.5Sig. strikes / min13.0
54%Striking accuracy51%
3.9Strikes absorbed / min1.7
2.8Takedowns / 15 min0.0
61%Takedown accuracy-
52%Takedown defense100%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: GANDRA8-fight win streak vs Reese 2-2 (1 NC) last 5
Zach Reese2-2
L Pereira Dec (S) '26W McVey Sub R2 '25NC Dumas NC R1 '25W Todorovic Dec (U) '25L Bekoev KO R1 '25
Ryan Gandra5-0
W Medina KO R1 '26W Miller KO R1 '25W Calvo Marrero KO R1 '24W Gambulino KO R2 '23W Bezerra Sub R1 '23
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyReeseGandra
W Dec (U) '24Jose Daniel MedinaW KO R1 '26
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesZach Reese
- Suspect chin (first-round KO by Bekoev)
- Inconsistent form (loss to Pereira; a no-contest muddies the picture)
- Can be caught early
Ryan Gandra
- Almost entirely untested past round one (seven of nine wins ended in R1)
- Unknown cardio and deep-water composure
- Large step up in competition from the regional level
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONRyan Gandra ML-135
CONFIDENCE 2/5
The common opponent tells the story: Gandra erased Jose Daniel Medina in 41 seconds while Reese needed 15 minutes for a decision over the same guy. Gandra is on an 8-fight tear with 7 finishes since his only loss, and Reese has been flattened in Round 1 twice in the UFC while absorbing 3.92 strikes a minute. Reese's grappling is the real counterpath, 11 of 18 UFC takedowns and 3 sub wins against a man who has never attempted one, but he has to survive the early storm to use it, and his 2-2 (1 NC) recent form does not inspire that faith. Light chalk at -135, not a hammer, because Gandra's UFC sample is under 4 minutes.
Why this confidence
+1
Stylistic matchup edge
First-strike power against a chin that has already failed early (Bekoev KO).
+1
Recent form / activity
Perfect finishing run, all first-round stoppages.
-2
Cardio / pace
Never forced past round one; deep-water game entirely unproven.
-1
Betting-line value
Near pick'em at -135; Reese at +115 is a live dog if it exits round one.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickRyan Gandra ML
Consensus-135
Per-book line shopping was not available for this bout.Early-prelim: consensus price only, not line-shopped.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansOver/Under 1.5 Rounds
Under 1.5 Rounds
Reese has 7 of 10 wins and both KO losses in Round 1, and Gandra's last five are all R1 or R2 finishes including three straight first-round KOs. Nobody in this cage is built for the scorecards.
Method of Victory
Gandra by KO/TKO
Six of Gandra's nine wins are knockouts and his current streak has 6 KOs in 8 fights, aimed at a Reese chin that has been cracked in Round 1 twice in the UFC.
Method of Victory (dog sprinkle)
Reese by Submission
Gandra has attempted zero takedowns ever, and Reese owns 3 sub wins, 1.27 sub attempts per 15, and 11 of 18 UFC takedowns. If the first exchange goes to the floor this line pays like a live dog.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.