← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 9:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · FLYWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Brandon Royval 17-9 · Lone'er Kavanagh 10-1
Who are these fighters?
FlyweightMAIN CARD3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Brandon Royval
“Raw Dawg”
17-9
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
VS
Lone'er Kavanagh
10-1
33Age27
5' 9"Height5' 6"
68"Reach67"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
USAFromEngland
Dec 2025Last FightFeb 2026
Home division (125) for both.
No move. Straight flyweight matchup.
How do they win?
Career winsROYVAL: 76% FINISH RATE13 of 17 wins inside the distance, 9 by sub
Royval4 KO · 9 sub · 4 dec
Been finished 3x in 9 losses (2 KO · 1 sub)
Kavanagh4 KO · 1 sub · 5 dec
Been finished 1x in 1 loss (1 KO · 0 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: ROYVAL5.54 sig strikes/min vs 4.13, but at 42% vs 49% accuracy
RoyvalKavanagh
5.5Sig. strikes / min4.1
42%Striking accuracy49%
4.3Strikes absorbed / min3.5
0.7Takedowns / 15 min1.1
25%Takedown accuracy-
45%Takedown defense94%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: KAVANAGHBeat Moreno over 5 rounds in Feb; Royval on a two-fight skid
Brandon Royval2-3
L Kape KO R1 '25L Van Dec (U) '25W Taira Dec (S) '24W Moreno Dec (S) '24L Pantoja Dec (U) '23 ◆ TITLE
Lone'er Kavanagh4-1
W Moreno Dec (U) '26L Johnson KO R2 '25W dos Santos Dec (U) '25W Ochoa Dec (U) '24W Ho KO R1 '24
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxyRoyvalKavanagh
W Dec (S) '24Brandon MorenoW Dec (U) '26
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesBrandon Royval
- Durability fading; R1 KO by Kape and four knockdowns across his UFC run
- Weak takedown defense on a tall, high-center frame
- Dangerous but hittable, and gets caught off his back
Lone'er Kavanagh
- Newer with thin tape at the top level
- Proven finishable (KO loss to Johnson, Aug 2025)
- Grappling untested against a real submission threat
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✗ LOSTLone'er Kavanagh ML-225
CONFIDENCE 2/5
Kavanagh is the likelier winner: six years younger, 49% striking accuracy to Royval's 42%, 94% takedown defense, and coming off a five-round decision over former champ Moreno. But this is a confidence-2 spot for one reason: -225 prices the edge completely out. Royval eats 4.25 sig strikes a minute with 45% takedown defense and just got KO'd by Kape, yet his scramble-and-submission game is a genuine live path, and at +175 he is where whatever betting value exists on this fight actually sits. We lean Kavanagh to win; we do not love laying -225 to do it.
Why this confidence
+2
Stylistic matchup edge
49% striking accuracy and 94% takedown defense against a fading, hittable Royval.
+1
Age & decline
Six years younger; Royval's durability is trending down (R1 KO by Kape).
-2
Betting-line value
-225 prices the edge completely out; there is little to no value at this number.
-1
Chin / finish-resistance
Thin tape and proven finishable (Johnson KO); Royval's scramble-sub game is the live path back.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickLone'er Kavanagh ML
Even the best number (-194) prices out most of the edge; this is a lean, not a play.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansMethod of Victory
Kavanagh by Decision
Half of Kavanagh's ten wins are decisions and he just banked 25 clean minutes against Moreno. A patient 49% accuracy counter-striker who wins rounds is the most likely script here.
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
Over 2.5 Rounds
Four of Kavanagh's last five went the distance, and Royval has been finished early only twice in 26 fights. If Kavanagh manages range like he did against Moreno this leaks into round three and beyond.
Method of Victory
Royval by Submission (dog dart)
If you want the plus-money side of this fight, Royval's 9 career sub wins and 1.08 attempts per 15 are his only real edge, one scramble is all he needs. Small stakes only, Kavanagh has never been tapped.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.