← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 9:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · BANTAMWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Cory Sandhagen 18-6 · Mario Bautista 17-3
Who are these fighters?
BantamweightMAIN CARD3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Cory Sandhagen
“The Sandman”
18-6
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
VS
Mario Bautista
17-3
Home division (135) for both.
No move. This is a rematch, but the first meeting was over seven years ago (Jan 2019) and tells you little about either fighter today.
How do they win?
Career winsSANDHAGEN: 61% FINISH RATE8 KO + 3 sub in 18 wins, never been KO'd
Sandhagen8 KO · 3 sub · 7 dec
Been finished 1x in 6 losses (0 KO · 1 sub)
Bautista3 KO · 7 sub · 7 dec
Been finished 2x in 3 losses (1 KO · 1 sub)
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: BAUTISTA5.30 vs 4.86 sig strikes per min, 49% accuracy
SandhagenBautista
4.9Sig. strikes / min5.3
45%Striking accuracy49%
3.5
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsEDGE: BAUTISTA9-1 in last 10, fought Feb 2026 vs 9-month layoff
Cory Sandhagen3-2
L Dvalishvili Dec (U) '25 ◆ TITLEW Figueiredo KO R2 '25L Nurmagomedov Dec (U) '24W Font Dec (U) '23W Vera Dec (S) '23
Same opponents, how did each do?
Head-to-head proxySandhagenBautista
L Dec (U) '24Umar NurmagomedovL Dec (U) '25
Each side’s most recent meeting with that opponent. Styles make fights, so treat this as a clue, not a scoreboard.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesCory Sandhagen
- Takedown defense around 56%; elite wrestlers are his kryptonite (Dvalishvili, Umar)
- Loses the grappling exchanges against top-tier pressure
Mario Bautista
- Not the most technical striker (about 55% striking defense)
- Modest takedown offense and limited one-punch power
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✗ LOSTCory Sandhagen ML-140
CONFIDENCE 3/5
Sandhagen's three recent losses all came against elite pressure grapplers over five championship rounds, and Bautista is not that guy: he lands takedowns at 1.91 per 15 but Sandhagen only gives them up to the Merab and Umar tier. On the feet Sandhagen is the cleaner technician with a 2-inch height and 1-inch reach edge, absorbs half a strike per minute less, and has never been KO'd in 24 pro fights. He already submitted Bautista in Round 1 back in 2019, and while Bautista is a far better fighter now at 9-1 in his last 10, the skill gap at range still leans Sandman. Light chalk at -140 is a fair price, not a hammer spot.
Why this confidence
+1
Stylistic matchup edge
Cleaner technician at range with a height and reach edge; Bautista is not the pressure grappler who beats Sandhagen.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickCory Sandhagen ML
Value lean
Props worth a look
3 leansFight Goes the Distance
Yes
Sandhagen has never been KO'd in 24 fights and both men have 7 decision wins apiece. Bautista's finishes come on the mat, and Sandhagen has only been submitted once, by Sterling in 2020.
Method of Victory
Sandhagen by Decision
Seven of Sandhagen's 18 wins are decisions and Bautista has only been stopped twice in 20 fights. Cleaner striker outpointing a durable volume guy over 15 minutes is the modal outcome.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.