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UFC · 7:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · HEAVYWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
Gable Steveson 3-0 · Elisha Ellison 5-2
Who are these fighters?
Heavyweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Gable Steveson
3-0
VS
Elisha Ellison
“Snack Panther”
5-2
26Age29
6' 1"Height6' 0"
-Reach78"
-StanceOrthodox
USAFromUSA
Feb 2026Last FightSep 2025
Home division (265) for both.
No move. Gable Steveson's UFC debut; he is a 2020 Olympic freestyle gold medalist and two-time NCAA heavyweight champion.
How do they win?
Career winsSTEVESON: 100% FINISH RATE3 for 3, all R1 KO/TKO; Ellison also 100% (4 KO, 1 sub) so nobody's going home early
Steveson3 KO · 0 sub · 0 dec
Been finished 0x in 0 losses
Ellison4 KO · 1 sub · 0 dec
Been finished 2x in 2 losses (1 KO · 1 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerPACE: ZERO SECOND ROUNDSAll 10 combined pro fights ended in R1 per ESPN; no UFC volume stats exist for either
StevesonEllison
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsFORM: STEVESON3 straight R1 KOs, active Feb 2026; Ellison KO'd last out with a ~9.5-month layoff
Gable Steveson3-0
W Lezama KO R1 '26W Hein KO R1 '25W Peterson KO R1 '25
Elisha Ellison3-2
L Peričić KO R1 '25W Brewster KO R1 '25W Roundstone KO R1 '24W Burlington KO R1 '24L Pearson Sub R1 '24
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesGable Steveson
- Deeply MMA-green (three career fights, none past 3:50)
- Untested cardio and submission defense
- Has never had to problem-solve when a first-round blitz fails
Elisha Ellison
- Chin is a liability (starched in R1 by Pericic)
- Submittable (Pearson side choke)
- No takedown or scramble answer for an Olympic-level wrestler
- Never faced this athletic tier
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONGable Steveson by KO/TKO
CONFIDENCE 4/5
Steveson at -2800 is the biggest chalk in UFC history per the books, so the ML is dead money and the play is method. He's 3-0 with three first-round KOs and an Olympic gold medal base, while Ellison got flattened in 1:55 in his own UFC debut and has been finished both times things went sideways. If Steveson wins, every data point says it comes violently and early, not on the cards. Only reason this isn't a 5: Steveson has under 6 minutes of pro cage time and his chin has literally never been tested.
Why this confidence
+2
Stylistic matchup edge
Olympic-gold wrestling into ground-and-pound against a fighter starched on the ground in his only step up.
+2
Chin / finish-resistance
Ellison was ground-and-pounded out in round one at UFC level.
-1
Cardio / pace
Steveson is MMA-green and untested past 3:50; the live-dog path is Ellison surviving the first blitz.
0
Betting-line value
The -2800 ML is unbettable; the clean expressions are Steveson by KO/TKO or Under 1.5 rounds.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickGable Steveson by KO/TKO
Per-book line shopping was not available for this bout.
The -900 ML is unbettable and no method price was published. Under 1.5 rounds sits around -580. Shop the derivative, not the moneyline.
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansOver/Under 1.5 Rounds
Under 1.5 Rounds
Per ESPN, all 10 combined pro fights between these two ended inside round 1, no exceptions. Two heavyweights who only know one gear is the cleanest under profile on the card.
Fight Goes the Distance
No
Steveson's wins are all R1 KOs and Ellison has 4 R1 KO wins plus 2 R1 losses himself. Neither man has ever heard a second-round horn per ESPN, let alone a judge's scorecard.
Round Betting
Steveson to Win in Round 1
Steveson is 3-for-3 on round 1 finishes and Ellison has been stopped in round 1 both times he lost. This is the aggressive stack on the same volatility angle at a fatter number.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.