← UFC 329 FULL CARD
UFC · 7:00 PM ET · UFC 329: MCGREGOR VS. HOLLOWAY 2 · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · T-MOBILE ARENA, LAS VEGAS
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
Robert Whittaker 26-9 · Nikita Krylov 31-11
Who are these fighters?
Light Heavyweight3 ROUNDSPARAMOUNT+
Robert Whittaker
“The Reaper”
26-9
2 TITLE-FIGHT WINS
VS
Nikita Krylov
“The Miner”
31-11
1 TITLE-FIGHT WIN
35Age34
6' 0"Height6' 3"
73.5"Reach77.5"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
AustraliaFromRussia
Jul 2025Last FightJan 2026
Whittaker moving up to light heavyweight (205).
This is a true 205 bout, not a catchweight. Whittaker is a career middleweight in his first-ever light heavyweight fight, surrendering real size to a natural light heavyweight who rehydrates big, though he no longer has to drain down to 185.
How do they win?
Career winsKRYLOV: 94% FINISH RATE29 of 31 wins by KO or sub; Whittaker sits at 59% (16 of 27)
Whittaker10 KO · 5 sub · 11 dec
Been finished 5x in 9 losses (3 KO · 2 sub)
Krylov13 KO · 16 sub · 2 dec
Been finished 9x in 11 losses (3 KO · 6 sub)
KO/TKOSUBMISSIONDECISION
Who lands more?
CareerVOLUME: DEAD EVEN4.39 vs 4.36 sig strikes per min, but Krylov lands at 54% to Whittaker's 43%
WhittakerKrylov
4.4Sig. strikes / min4.4
43%Striking accuracy54%
3.4Strikes absorbed / min2.6
0.7Takedowns / 15 min2.0
38%Takedown accuracy37%
82%Takedown defense53%
How are they arriving?
Last 5 fightsFORM: KRYLOV3 fights since Apr 2025 and a Jan KO win vs Whittaker's 2 straight losses and a year off
Robert Whittaker2-3
L de Ridder Dec (S) '25L Chimaev Sub R1 '24W Aliskerov KO R1 '24W Costa Dec (U) '24L du Plessis KO R2 '23
Nikita Krylov3-2
W Bukauskas KO R3 '26L Guskov KO R1 '25L Reyes KO R1 '25W Spann Sub R1 '23W Oezdemir Dec (U) '22
◆ marks a title fight. R# is the round it ended in.
Where each can lose
Exploitable holesRobert Whittaker
- Untested at 205, surrenders real size and fight-night weight
- Recent durability cracks (face-cranked by Chimaev, TKO'd by du Plessis)
- Edge is speed not power; may not deter Krylov's pressure
- On a two-fight skid
Nikita Krylov
- Chin exposed on the retreat (flatlined by Reyes and Guskov, both R1, in 2025)
- Streaky
- Can be out-boxed and out-scrambled by cleaner technicians
Web-researched weaknesses that shape the pick and the props. Styles make fights: the side whose holes matter least on the night usually wins.
The pick
✓ WONRobert Whittaker ML-135
CONFIDENCE 2/5
The whole case for Krylov is size and top position, and Whittaker's 82% takedown defense plus a decade of elite distance striking takes most of that away. Krylov's chin is the other tell: he got flatlined in round one twice in 2025, and Whittaker still cracks (11 KO wins, R1 KO of Aliskerov in his last win). The market bet this down from a -213 open to -135, so you are getting the best number Whittaker backers have seen all week, but respect why it moved: LHW debut, age 35, a year off. Skill-for-skill Whittaker is a level above, so take the discounted chalk and keep the stake honest.
Why this confidence
+1
Stylistic matchup edge
Superior speed, footwork, and boxing volume, aided by no longer draining to 185.
-2
Weight-class movement
First-ever fight at 205; surrenders real size to a natural light heavyweight who rehydrates huge.
-1
Durability / cut risk
Recent durability cracks (face-cranked by Chimaev, TKO'd by du Plessis).
-1
Betting-line value
The value on this fight sits on Krylov +115; the market bet Whittaker up to -213 then backed off to -135.
◆ Also on the board: value lean
Nikita Krylov ML+115
This is the card spot where value sits on the dog. Krylov is the natural, heavier-hitting light heavyweight in Whittaker's first-ever bout at 205, and the market's own move tells the story: Whittaker was bet up to -213 before money came back and knocked him to -135, meaning the book is not sold on the move up. Krylov's chin is a real risk, but at plus money against a middleweight surrendering size, the price is the edge.
Shop the best price
Line shoppingPickRobert Whittaker ML
Value leanNikita Krylov ML
Odds as of Sat, Jul 11, 2026 (fight day). They move; confirm at your book.Tapping a bet asks you to sign up once so we can track it, then opens the book’s UFC page (a pre-filled slip once an affiliate deal is live). 21+.
Props worth a look
3 leansFight Goes the Distance
No
Only 4 of Krylov's 42 fights have ever seen a scorecard, and his last three all ended by KO/TKO. Somebody gets finished way more often than not when he is in there.
Method of Victory
Whittaker by KO/TKO
Krylov was KO'd in round one by both Reyes and Guskov in 2025, and Whittaker's hand speed at range is a class up from either. If the takedowns get stuffed at his career 82% clip, this becomes a kickboxing match Krylov eats damage in (3.36 vs 2.59 absorbed favors Krylov on paper, but his three KO losses say the ones that land matter).
Method of Victory
Krylov by Submission (dog-side lean)
If you want the +115 side, this is the path: 16 career sub wins, 1.2 attempts per 15, and Whittaker just got choked in round one by Chimaev. One takedown against a smaller, rusty Whittaker and Krylov hunts the neck immediately.
Career stats are career-to-date at publish time and sourced from ESPN and UFCStats. Odds move; check your book before tapping in. 21+, bet responsibly. This is analysis, not financial advice.