Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
This is chalk that actually earns its number. Durden's whole path is the takedown (3.99 per 15) and Costa stuffs shots at 86% while having never been submitted in 21 pro fights, so the wrestling well is mostly capped. On the feet it gets worse for Durden: he absorbs 3.94 per minute, has been finished 7 times, and got flatlined by Ochoa in 2025, while Costa is riding back-to-back KO/TKO wins and finishes 13 of 16 career victories. A 35-year-old who is 2-6 in his last 8 against a 30-year-old power striker in form is a fade, not a live dog.
Home division (125) for both.
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