Cory Sandhagen ML

Sandhagen's three recent losses all came against elite pressure grapplers over five championship rounds, and Bautista is not that guy: he lands takedowns at 1.91 per 15 but Sandhagen only gives them up to the Merab and Umar tier. On the feet Sandhagen is the cleaner technician with a 2-inch height and 1-inch reach edge, absorbs half a strike per minute less, and has never been KO'd in 24 pro fights. He already submitted Bautista in Round 1 back in 2019, and while Bautista is a far better fighter now at 9-1 in his last 10, the skill gap at range still leans Sandman. Light chalk at -140 is a fair price, not a hammer spot.

Home division (135) for both.