Max Holloway ML

The sharp money dragging Holloway from -400 to -235 is a McGregor nostalgia tax, not a tape read. Holloway has fought four times since Oct 2024 against elite lightweights while McGregor has not answered a bell in five years, is 1-3 in his last four, and turns 38 three days after this walk. The volume math is brutal: Holloway lands 6.91 significant strikes a minute and McGregor absorbs 4.66, and in a five rounder that gap compounds every minute McGregor fails to land the early left hand. McGregor's one-punch equity in rounds 1-2 is the only reason this is not a 5.

Both moving up to welterweight.