Damian Pinas ML

This is a pure kickboxing match where the 24-year-old holds every physical lever: 5.5 inches of reach, more than double the output (7.50 SLpM vs 3.46), and nine straight wins with nine finishes. Almeida is a legit striker with real power (5 KOs in 7 wins) but he's 38, coming off a decision loss, and sitting 2-2 in his last four against a guy who has never been outfought. The chalk is priced steep for someone with only two UFC/DWCS fights on tape, which is why this stays a 3 and not a hammer, but the matchup logic all points one way.

Home division (185) for both.