Luke Riley ML

Riley is 13-0 with 9 knockouts and he gets hit way less, absorbing 3.32 sig strikes a minute to Kamaka's 5.67. Kamaka's clearest path is the wrestle-boxing route since Riley has landed zero takedowns and defends them at just 38%, so this is not free money at -265. But Kamaka has been TKO'd twice, gives up two inches of height at the same reach, and 14 of his 18 wins are decisions, which means he has to survive 15 minutes of a knockout artist to grind this out. Riley is the right side, just at a chalky number against a live dog.

Home division (145) for both.