Adrian Yanez ML

This is a pure kickboxing match and Yanez more than doubles Garbrandt's output (5.96 vs 2.79 SLpM) with a 4.5 inch reach edge, against a 35 year old who has been stopped 5 times and is 4-7 since the Cruz win. Garbrandt's only paths are a decision grind or landing the one clean shot, and his 0.85 takedowns per 15 at 11% accuracy says the grind is not coming. That said, -450 for a guy who is 0-1-1 in his last two off a 15 month layoff is rich chalk, so this is a parlay piece, not a hammer. Garbrandt is a live dog by chin math alone, just not a bet I want at his volume.

Home division (135) for both.