Lone'er Kavanagh ML

Kavanagh is the likelier winner: six years younger, 49% striking accuracy to Royval's 42%, 94% takedown defense, and coming off a five-round decision over former champ Moreno. But this is a confidence-2 spot for one reason: -225 prices the edge completely out. Royval eats 4.25 sig strikes a minute with 45% takedown defense and just got KO'd by Kape, yet his scramble-and-submission game is a genuine live path, and at +175 he is where whatever betting value exists on this fight actually sits. We lean Kavanagh to win; we do not love laying -225 to do it.

Home division (125) for both.