Athletics ML
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals2
Athletics5
Winner: Athletics · 2026-04-29
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-122
1.8197
Closing
-120
1.8333
Delta
-0.75%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#161
UUIDabdf4eba-89f1-473c-8240-a90e11b8fad9
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-04-30 17:51 UTC
Graded2026-04-30 19:06 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:825016:2026-04-30T19:05:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash37746fb744c0673a8d5a0f664e9e291ae6471b56a81374622baa4348ff3f9e83
Closing line-120 captured 2026-04-30 19:07 UTC
CLV delta-0.75%
Closing hashbfdec94c21a844eee9fae4c837901831ee4c5f31ed7600778447bf774d5e68da
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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