Christian Moore Under 0.5 Runs Scored
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
first pitch in02:41:08
Edge
Empirical 97.5% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +26.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +26.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+12.0% vs league avg over 284 games)
- 97.5% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
19
Settled
17
Hit rate
60.0%
9-6
ROI
-2.87%
-0.06u
CLV avg
+2.48%
n=14
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (17 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#12538
UUID37d21977-de86-473b-b557-ddd3ff050730
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash795706f3885aec68a935ba1a5435afb4d908bb2bbf2c52289302113f0e945b0b
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.1% hashed1,296 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.1% closed1,263 settled picks · 63.1% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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