Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +18.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox3
Los Angeles Dodgers2
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-08-01
Related Picks (16)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1702
UUID773e89a8-9f25-4c6d-9ac9-bf0a82e3e13f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 04:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8f77e0ad0cb8542cb4a068f96fea7ca4c61a8b9522e4cb2043516665b1fb9b3f
Closing line-180 captured 2026-08-02 04:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashd88686958e766acc41093467ee0fd306af87e8e2165f0f8de68a1bbe75ff3c8f
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801