Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
Edge
Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +37.5pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies5
Baltimore Orioles0
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-08-01
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-4.71%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1703
UUID02f9fa32-f0b4-497e-badb-037da3514716
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash164a865e90c5c788e3573b7d045500f713991b193affe36bfa4c69523a07704e
Closing line-150 captured 2026-08-01 21:37 UTC
CLV delta-4.71%
Closing hash66bd4e0135cf82c4e2cd170daa9e76ab81fc62b180197edfb46f069eb58d62d0
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger78.0% hashed1,378 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close65.9% closed1,378 settled picks · 65.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public0 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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