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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 164a865e

Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

-170risk0.22u→win0.13u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-170

Closing

-150

CLV

-4.71%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +37.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies5
Baltimore Orioles0
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-4.71%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1703
UUID02f9fa32-f0b4-497e-badb-037da3514716
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash164a865e90c5c788e3573b7d045500f713991b193affe36bfa4c69523a07704e
Closing line-150 captured 2026-08-01 21:37 UTC
CLV delta-4.71%
Closing hash66bd4e0135cf82c4e2cd170daa9e76ab81fc62b180197edfb46f069eb58d62d0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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