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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 753c9e13

Sonny Gray Over 14.5 Outs Recorded

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

-180risk0.22u→win0.12uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in47:13
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-180

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +34.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: e22c92)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +34.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-0.5% vs league avg over 283 games)
  • 99.9% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
20
Hit rate
64.7%
11-6
ROI
+11.21%
+0.29u
CLV avg
+1.96%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (20 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

Audit trail

Pick ID#13731
UUID7bd13098-9f71-4251-80e8-666c778e524f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-30 19:14 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash753c9e13f6f7f6959f66ff56ee8c45b2fcd232ea1aeec1127ecce358ba5f96ae

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger79.3% hashed
    1,349 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.4% closed
    1,341 settled picks · 65.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public8 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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