Sonny Gray Over 14.5 Outs Recorded
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +34.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: e22c92)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox2
New York Yankees9
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-09-30
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
18
Settled
18
Hit rate
66.7%
10-5
ROI
+9.89%
+0.23u
CLV avg
+2.24%
n=14
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (18 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#13731
UUID7bd13098-9f71-4251-80e8-666c778e524f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-30 19:14 UTC
Graded2026-10-01 06:20 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash753c9e13f6f7f6959f66ff56ee8c45b2fcd232ea1aeec1127ecce358ba5f96ae
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Why this receipt is trustable
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