New York Yankees ML
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles2
New York Yankees7
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-05-01
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-184
1.5435
Closing
-194
1.5155
Delta
+1.85%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#189
UUID28370b4c-fdab-4d2e-8ca2-41213c7ff065
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-01 22:36 UTC
Graded2026-05-02 01:55 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823557:2026-05-01T23:05:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe2b1f1969727387a333910c7ce8532f0506c84adf43c3fbe383469989b85ef9b
Closing line-194 captured 2026-05-01 23:07 UTC
CLV delta+1.85%
Closing hash416e77f3cf16f03b4c9cb940a5ee796896e820d2eedfcd6d24ca854dfa832263
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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