San Francisco Giants ML
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants1
Tampa Bay Rays5
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-05-02
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-118
1.8475
Closing
+113
2.1300
Delta
-13.26%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#235
UUID428af1ac-a397-4fb0-9c74-1ce7f25ed315
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-02 20:56 UTC
Graded2026-05-07 21:06 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822988:2026-05-02T22:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2c6651ffce6d25c8fc4b9e75e187193295ff58464c525c1678779cdf863725a9
Closing line+113 captured 2026-05-02 22:13 UTC
CLV delta-13.26%
Closing hash6a241a1c2646e3fbb2299e66ad4175b9b42f20c8e13a679b3e0539b5eb6f9a93
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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