Cleveland Guardians ML
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Cleveland Guardians1
Athletics7
Winner: Athletics · 2026-05-03
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-126
1.7937
Closing
+115
2.1500
Delta
-16.57%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#313
UUID0b265b77-803c-4730-a76b-18713014cd4a
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-03 19:36 UTC
Graded2026-05-07 21:05 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:825013:2026-05-03T20:05:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbabf0fe78b380290adccc18ab13bd6788bdd746370dfb6f353764fb0b5d62ecc
Closing line+115 captured 2026-05-03 20:06 UTC
CLV delta-16.57%
Closing hash9bac86d458e75f8f6a056b6b5cf3ef6c646421920b0cb06343163885a7097c31
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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