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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-10-07🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 0c510e9d

Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

-164risk0.12u→win0.07uPENDINGESPN box score →
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-164

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +18.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: bd4205)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +18.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #16 vs this prop (-2.9% vs league avg over 215 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Rate Field: 10 mph wind blowing IN (N): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-164-1640.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
20
Settled
19
Hit rate
52.9%
9-8
ROI
-19.27%
-0.47u
CLV avg
-1.00%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (19 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#15186
UUID628928a1-f1ed-452c-8402-1f05d5c73008
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-10-07 18:12 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0c510e9dec5a7866a11535ca1af0806bfd6058627f08576076558c601a43cb5c
Closing line-164 captured 2026-10-07 18:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash260d4d120db5b3b9c347a5873d5c34445792bfdf9b526d262959de33002835a0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.6% hashed
    1,367 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.5% closed
    1,364 settled picks · 65.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public3 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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