Seattle Mariners ML
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Atlanta Braves4
Seattle Mariners5
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-05-04
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-136
1.7353
Closing
-143
1.6993
Delta
+2.12%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#450
UUIDfc062ba7-55cc-4a06-babc-c0bc69a0ed3d
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLB
Posted2026-05-05 01:11 UTC
Graded2026-05-05 04:20 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe02a76f6d34c1f21669d4db999095e8a3163a442988dd90cc4089d938aefb745
Closing line-143 captured 2026-05-05 06:10 UTC
CLV delta+2.12%
Closing hashe550899fc646b60d8941357fbff3340ca92fcf2707dab9e64b487c221079bdd3
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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