Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
first pitch in01:44:41
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 83.2% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +20.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +20.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+13.5% vs league avg over 284 games)
- 83.2% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
26
Settled
25
Hit rate
54.2%
13-11
ROI
-15.44%
-0.53u
CLV avg
-0.09%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (25 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#13409
UUID3224d685-4a1e-451d-ba66-784327eeacde
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-26 21:13 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf7f835c771bb57b86861330c74711490254c374dc57c44954a7dbabc3f5617a9
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Why this receipt is trustable
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