Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Hits
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
-250risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +8.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +8.6pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #22 vs this prop (-7.2% vs league avg over 271 games)
- 80.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#638
UUID106c1681-9b96-4e72-baf5-d8f8b1b82ffa
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0ff2f8d393c79794294d4fda7486bf390fe443ad831bf41eb67a5cca089c6146
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Why this receipt is trustable
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