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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 062e8dd7

Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits

Cincinnati Reds @ LA Dodgers

-166risk0.21u→win0.13u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-166

Closing

-171

CLV

+1.11%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.4% implied → +30.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds2
Los Angeles Dodgers3
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-09-08
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-171
1.5848
Delta
+1.11%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8380
UUIDbdf3b817-f88c-4ed1-9e4b-d8d039cd32c4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-08 20:36 UTC
Graded2026-09-09 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash062e8dd7256c2a51a67713c453708b1c522ff9d84f31cd66ae8a3c8e307696fe
Closing line-171 captured 2026-09-09 00:53 UTC
CLV delta+1.11%
Closing hash41947b68a5114be3ef2624e3bc31006aa804ac1662ff76f06b2a5c5917ae9d61

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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