Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits
Cincinnati Reds @ LA Dodgers
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.4% implied → +30.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds2
Los Angeles Dodgers3
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-09-08
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-171
1.5848
Delta
+1.11%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#8380
UUIDbdf3b817-f88c-4ed1-9e4b-d8d039cd32c4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-08 20:36 UTC
Graded2026-09-09 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash062e8dd7256c2a51a67713c453708b1c522ff9d84f31cd66ae8a3c8e307696fe
Closing line-171 captured 2026-09-09 00:53 UTC
CLV delta+1.11%
Closing hash41947b68a5114be3ef2624e3bc31006aa804ac1662ff76f06b2a5c5917ae9d61
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Why this receipt is trustable
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