Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
first pitch in10:14:00
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +15.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +15.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #19 vs this prop (-4.5% vs league avg over 289 games)
- 80.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
1
Hit rate
100.0%
1-0
ROI
+60.24%
+0.13u
CLV avg
+1.11%
n=1
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (1 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#12924
UUID0b9b2e25-a16d-475a-9194-a3d93c8f34b6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-24 14:37 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash18b4ba050e75b2fe9c01d3272fa045bb36095fe3ecd46f8b171a887b973fb9d7
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Why this receipt is trustable
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