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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-16◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED cf73e373

Abbas Abasov ML

Abbas Abasov @ Regivaldo Carvalho

-800risk1uwin0.13u
WIN

Stake

1u

Odds

-800

Closing

-800

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model (ref: 0701ba)

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Abbas Abasov priced at **88.9% implied** to win - book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.

Line movement

-800-8000.00 dec
Related Picks (8)

CLV math

Posted
-800
1.1250
Closing
-800
1.1250
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#772
UUIDd525acb1-a8ea-4d0a-8f13-0b27287aa44b
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-16 01:15 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashcf73e373f2816cbd0625a7e5631a0ba3f3096c454a89cc9ebf2911124255f45c
Closing line-800 captured 2026-05-16 01:36 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash65cc1c7477a03c6060fd894602fdd08c8906dee902ede96405e59bc9992fd77d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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