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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-16◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED b079706b

Ansar Khamzaev ML

Jordon Tague @ Ansar Khamzaev

-2000risk1uwin0.05u
WIN

Stake

1u

Odds

-2000

Closing

-1500

CLV

-1.56%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model (ref: c55114)

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Ansar Khamzaev priced at **95.2% implied** to win - book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.

Line movement

-2000-1500+0.02 dec
Related Picks (8)

CLV math

Posted
-2000
1.0500
Closing
-1500
1.0667
Delta
-1.56%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#773
UUID85888340-3ba7-4452-a3d3-443b425d1903
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-16 02:05 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb079706b64d4649bcdf76455c496c5a87da4d1335da9170647fa5b4d7196347f
Closing line-1500 captured 2026-05-16 02:26 UTC
CLV delta-1.56%
Closing hash50a3383dc69d825b885392ea0f9afc7b450bf72bca19e4b243ce8913682ea221

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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