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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 30321785

Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ NY Yankees

-173risk0.17u→win0.1u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-173

Closing

-173

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.4% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +25.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Colorado Rockies3
New York Yankees5
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-09-08
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
2
Hit rate
100.0%
2-0
ROI
+57.26%
+0.17u
CLV avg
-0.31%
n=2
Last 6 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8379
UUID424fadaf-a026-48a7-8b7c-aec9967ae3db
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-08 20:36 UTC
Graded2026-09-09 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash30321785da27cfe81e901adc919ffdd366d16f93662be9fcd78097affcae7e49
Closing line-173 captured 2026-09-08 21:38 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash11e19b81ab02a79835004f7f9b6aed5a405b5db9e162639473e34991dfce6d3c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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