Aston Villa ML
Aston Villa @ SC Freiburg
Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: draftkings)
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
EUROPA Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Game context
Context signals
- 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Aston Villa priced at **60.8% implied** to win - book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
- 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ DRAFTKINGS -155 ➋ BETMGM -155 ➌ FANATICS -160
Line movement
-155-170-0.06 decRelated Picks (7)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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