Over 2.5
Aston Villa @ SC Freiburg
+100
WIN
Edge
Friendly alt over at 50.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (50.0% vs 55.0%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
EUROPA alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Game context
Line movement
+100-105-0.05 decModel Record (30d)
sharp-stub-v0-alt-totalTrailing 30-day window
Picks
68
Settled
68
Hit rate
74.6%
47-16-5
ROI
+6.70%
+3.85u
CLV avg
-16.22%
n=7
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
Related Picks (7)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
+100
2.0000
Closing
-105
1.9524
Delta
+2.44%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#989
UUIDf5e07181-2b3f-4cea-b680-ca55d11ab0bd
Surfacesharp_degraded:EUROPA
Posted2026-05-20 18:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 20:57 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha6e95b09a5a2de1ae9669123f6b203dc3f5803e8e6ed36ee39fd66c8875dd305
Closing line-105 captured 2026-05-20 19:00 UTC
CLV delta
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