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europaAlt Total.2026-05-20🔒Pro◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED a6e95b09

Over 2.5

Aston Villa @ SC Freiburg

+100risk0.75u→win0.75u
WIN

Stake

0.75u

Odds

+100

Closing

-105

CLV

+2.44%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Friendly alt over at 50.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (50.0% vs 55.0%).

Signal

Same lineup gate as ML

Context

EUROPA alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung

Risk

Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.

Game context

Line movement

+100-105-0.05 dec
Related Picks (7)

CLV math

Posted
+100
2.0000
Closing
-105
1.9524
Delta
+2.44%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#989
UUIDf5e07181-2b3f-4cea-b680-ca55d11ab0bd
Surfacesharp_degraded:EUROPA
Posted2026-05-20 18:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 20:57 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha6e95b09a5a2de1ae9669123f6b203dc3f5803e8e6ed36ee39fd66c8875dd305
Closing line-105 captured 2026-05-20 19:00 UTC
CLV delta+2.44%
Closing hash079b4211d6092156bcbdb0dc2101521948c64dc04538ed4e2383d26b9d1e1f79

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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