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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-12🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2b8ca569

Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ LA Dodgers

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-177

CLV

+1.49%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +17.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 4846a1)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-1.2% vs league avg over 162 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-170-177-0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
9
Settled
9
Hit rate
55.6%
5-4
ROI
-10.51%
-0.12u
CLV avg
+1.47%
n=8
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (9 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-177
1.5650
Delta
+1.49%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1769
UUIDe63fa404-0db5-4d5d-8159-22dc4f17300a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-12 15:42 UTC
Graded2026-08-13 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2b8ca569e6bf6f392038159019e661045f98b468a4b732f1f3eddc30017dfffe
Closing line-177 captured 2026-08-13 01:51 UTC
CLV delta+1.49%
Closing hash8217146fd8ef2829140aa4a649839cad616cbd24175ad65117dce670c396c289

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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