Cleveland Guardians ML
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays1
Cleveland Guardians0
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-04-28
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-112
1.8929
Closing
-131
1.7634
Delta
+7.34%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#103
UUID903b0c11-4357-4117-af45-9c6bb6941027
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-04-29 17:11 UTC
Graded2026-04-29 17:44 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824445:2026-04-29T17:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash45a18e34a39f36ec764487a6dec78f100940f503b5e224f517af31af70735408
Closing line-131 captured 2026-04-29 17:42 UTC
CLV delta+7.34%
Closing hashb29a154939eb88dc888564dc7a135886739e70b751b10325f4bd2d4fd756dab7
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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